156 <br />AXNT20 KNHC 162338<br />TWDAT <br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />0015 UTC Mon Mar 17 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />2330 UTC.<br /><br />...SPECIAL FEATURE...<br /><br />Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1014 mb low pressure near 23N55W<br />will support gale-force winds east of 55W tonight. As the low <br />moves east, strong gale force winds and gusts to storm force could<br />be possible from 27N to 29N and east of 57W late tonight through <br />Mon. Gale winds will likely last through Mon night, then <br />diminish to fresh to strong winds through Tue morning. This <br />pattern will also support rough to very rough seas east of 70W <br />through mid week. The low will move NW through mid-week while <br />weakening.<br /><br />Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National <br />Hurricane Center at website - <br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.<br /><br />...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <br /><br />The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of <br />Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 03N16W. <br />The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 05S38W to the coast of NE <br />Brazil. Strong convection is exiting the coast of Sierra Leone and<br />Liberia, extending west to 12W. Widely scattered moderate <br />convection is occurring south of 03N between 15W and 30W. <br /><br />...GULF OF AMERICA...<br /><br />A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to 22N91W. A 1010<br />mb low centered near 20N93W extends a warm front northeastward to<br />22N91W, and a cold front southward to 18N93W. Scattered<br />thunderstorms are occurring near the cold front offshore of west-<br />central and southwestern Florida. Fresh to strong north to<br />northwest winds are occurring to the north and west of these <br />fronts, extending from the north-central to southwestern Gulf. <br />Gentle to moderate SW winds prevail ahead of the fronts in the <br />southeastern basin. Locally rough seas to 8 ft are noted near the <br />strongest winds behind the front, otherwise, seas of 3 to 7 ft <br />prevail through much of the basin. <br /><br />For the forecast, the cold front extending from the Big Bend of <br />Florida to the south-central Gulf of America will continue to move<br />southeast and move E of the Gulf late tonight. Moderate to fresh <br />southerly winds ahead of the front will prevail this evening <br />across the eastern Gulf waters, then fresh to strong northerly <br />winds behind the front will develop across the central and eastern<br />Gulf tonight though Mon late night. Looking ahead, high pressure <br />will settle over the basin Mon through mid week. As the high <br />pressure moves toward N Florida fresh to strong southerly return <br />flow will set-up over the NW Gulf Mon night into Tue. Looking <br />ahead, another cold front is slated to enter the Gulf region by <br />mid-week. <br /><br />...CARIBBEAN SEA...<br /><br />A developing trough northeast of the Leeward Islands is <br />disrupting the subtropical ridge north of the area, resulting in <br />gentle breezes and 2 to 3 ft seas across the eastern Caribbean. <br />Moderate east winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted across the <br />central Caribbean, except for fresh to strong trade winds and seas<br />to 6 ft off Colombia. Fresh to strong southeast winds and <br />moderate to rough seas persist over most of the northwest <br />Caribbean, mainly west of 83W. No significant shower or <br />thunderstorm activity is evident at this time. <br /><br />For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds over the NW <br />Caribbean will diminish this evening as the cold front currently <br />moving across the Gulf of America reaches the Yucatan Channel <br />tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will <br />follow the front forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf <br />of Honduras by Mon night, and from the Windward Passage to near <br />Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua on Tue before dissipating Tue night<br />into Wed. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail across the<br />NW Carribbean from Mon through mid week. In addition, northeast <br />fresh to locally strong winds will pulse across southern Cuba, the<br />Windward Passage, and south of Haiti through the same period due <br />to a developing low pressure north of the area. Seas within these <br />winds will range between 4 to 8 ft. High pressure over the central<br />north Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will support <br />pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds at night offshore Colombia<br />throughout the forecast period. <br /><br />...ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br /><br />A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic associated<br />with a developing low pressure. Refer to the Special Features<br />section for more details. <br /><br />A 1014 mb low centered near 23N55W extends a trough to the<br />northeast to 27N52W, and southwestward to 18N64W. A mid to upper <br />level short wave trough is interacting with this surface feature <br />to support scattered showers and thunderstorms from 21N to 23N <br />between 49W and 52W. The pressure gradient between the trough and <br />1034 mb high pressure centered north of the area near 35N45W is <br />supporting fresh to strong east winds and 8 to 10 ft seas from <br />23N to 31N between 35W and 70W. Farther west, fresh to strong<br />southwest winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are active off eastern <br />Florida, mainly north of 27N and west of 75W, ahead of a cold <br />front slowly moving from the Gulf through Florida. Scattered <br />thunderstorms are occurring off the east coast of Florida in <br />association with this front. Farther east over the eastern <br />Atlantic, a cold front is approaching the Canary Islands, followed<br />by moderate to fresh winds and 8 to 14 ft seas in NW swell, east <br />of 35W. Moderate trade winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted <br />elsewhere across the basin south of 31N.<br /><br />For the forecast west of 55W, the 1014 mb low pressure near <br />23N55W will support gale-force winds east of 55W tonight. As the <br />low moves east, strong gale force winds and gusts to storm force <br />could be possible from 27N to 29N and east of 57W late tonight <br />through Mon. Gale winds will likely last through Mon night, then <br />diminish to fresh to strong winds through Tue morning. This <br />pattern will also support rough to very rough seas east of 70W <br />through mid week. Farther west, a strong cold front will push off <br />the SE United States coast tonight preceded and followed by fresh <br />to near-gale force winds and rough seas. The front will reach from<br />31N68W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba Tue morning, and <br />from Bermuda to Puerto Rico Wed morning. By mid week a low <br />pressure system may develop along this front supporting a large <br />area of near-gale to gale force winds and very rough seas between <br />Bermuda and the Bahamas. <br /><br />$$<br />ADAMS