000
AXNT20 KNHC 221000
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Oct 22 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Oscar is centered about near 22.7N 74.8W at
22/0900 UTC or 40 nm SSE of Long Island, moving NNE at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. The center of Oscar is
exposed, about 120 nm west of scattered moderate convection, which
extends from 20N to 22N, between 70W and 73W. Oscar is
moving toward the north-northeast and a faster northeastward
motion is expected later today and on Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the
southeastern and central Bahamas later today. Some gradual
weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Oscar
could degenerate to a post-tropical low by tonight. Localized
flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas as
well as the Turks and Caicos Islands. With rainfall easing across
Cuba, flooding from rainfall which has already occurred could
remain a concern for the next several days.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory for Oscar at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 37W from 03N to 15N, moving
west at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04N to 06N between 30W and 35W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 56W from 17N southward,
moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10N to 12N between 58W and 60W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W, from western Jamaica to
central Panama. No significant convection is depicted at this
time in association with this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N16W and extends
southwestward to 08N21W. The ITCZ extends from 08N21W to 07N30W. No
significant convection is noted.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure over the southeastern U.S. is maintaining moderate
to fresh winds across the southeastern and south-central Gulf,
where combined seas have been still 5 to 8 ft overnight with a
component of NE swell. A scatterometer satellite pass also showed
a small area of 20 kt NE winds over the southern Bay of Campeche.
Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas persist
elsewhere. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted.
For the forecast, the high pressure over the southeastern U.S.
will weaken through mid week, allowing fresh NE winds and
associated seas to diminish across the southeastern and south-
central Gulf. Gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas will
prevail by late Wed across the basin. Looking ahead, new high
pressure over the southeastern U.S. will allow fresh E winds and
building seas across the southeast Gulf Fri into Sat.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Special Features section for more details on
Tropical Storm Oscar.
The presence of Oscar over the southern Bahamas is breaking up the
standard ridge of high pressure found over the western Atlantic,
and conversely this pattern is supporting light to gentle breezes
and slight seas over much of the Caribbean between 70W and 80W.
Moderate to fresh winds have persisted overnight over the far
northwest Caribbean, supported by high pressure over the
southeastern U.S. Swell of 5 to 7 ft lingers near the Yucatan
Channel. Similar conditions are noted over the eastern Caribbean
as well. A few showers and thunderstorms are active off Colombia,
and east of the Leeward Islands associated with an approaching
tropical wave. A surface trough is supporting a few showers and
thunderstorms near Puerto Rico this morning also.
For the forecast, the weakening high pressure over the southeast
U.S. will allow winds and seas to diminish across the Yucatan
Channel and northwest Caribbean today. Farther east, NE Atlantic
swell will impact Atlantic passages over the Leeward Islands
through tonight. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas may persist over the southeast Caribbean during the middle
part of the week following a tropical wave moving through the
region. Looking ahead, the fresh trade winds will spread into the
south-central Caribbean by Fri, while additional Atlantic swell
impacts the Atlantic passages of the Windward Islands.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Oscar.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along a trough
reaching from 31N50W to 23N65W. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and
rough seas are noted north of 28N and west fo 65W, well north of
Oscar. Farther east, a ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure
near 31N32W southwestward toward 28N50W. Gentle breezes and 5 to
7 ft seas persist along the ridge axis, with moderate to fresh
trade winds and 5 to 8 ft seas south of the axis.
For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Oscar will move
across the southern Bahamas to 23.8N 73.8W through this
afternoon, become post-tropical and then move to 25.7N 71.7W Wed
morning. The remnant low of Oscar will reach 28.5N 69.5W Wed
afternoon, and will dissipate by Thu morning as it is absorbed
into a larger area of low pressure developing west of Bermuda. A
weak cold front may form from this low pressure to the central
Bahamas around this time, then drift eastward as the low pressure
shifts farther to the northeast into the central Atlantic. Looking
ahead to late Fri through Sat, high pressure will build over the
southeast U.S. and the waters between northeast Florida and
Bermuda following a weak reinforcing front moving over the region.
$$
Christensen
