000
AXNT20 KNHC 110001
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Oct 11 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton is centered near 29.5N 76.3W at
10/2100 UTC or 190 nm NNE of Great Abaco Island, moving E at 18
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas near
its center are 32 ft. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of
Milton associated more with the warm front that connects to the NE
of the low. On the forecast track, the center of the post-
tropical cyclone will pass to the south of Bermuda late Friday.
Additional weakening is forecast during the next several days. Coastal
flooding is expected to continue along portions of the
southeastern U.S. coast through tonight. Swells generated by
Milton are expected to continue to affect portions of the
southeast U.S. and the Bahamas during the next couple of days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.
Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 23.9N 50.9W at 10/2100
UTC or 1490 nm WSW of the Azores, moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas near the center are 30 ft.
Scattered moderate convection is from 19N to 23N between 49W and
55W. On the forecast track, Leslie will turn towards the north
tonight, and will follow a turn to the northeast on Friday, with
an east-northeastward turn expected over the weekend. Rapid
weakening is forecast to continue during the next day or so, and
Leslie is forecast to lose tropical characteristics in a few days.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information.
For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on both
Milton and Leslie, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave in the E Atlantic, Invest AL94, is just E of the
Cape Verde Islands associated with a 1007 mb low centered near
14N21W. The wave extends from 09N to 19N, and is moving west to
west-northwest at 15 to 20 kt. The broad area of low pressure is
generating scattered heavy showers and tstms from 07N to 15N
between 16W and 25W. Environmental conditions appear marginal
for limited development of this system while it moves westward or
west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic and the
Cabo Verde Islands on Friday. By Saturday, upper-level winds are
forecast to become less favorable, and further development is
unlikely after that time. Regardless of development, localized
areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the Cabo Verde
Islands tonight through Friday.
A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 03N to
13N with axis near 43W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 35W and 56W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 16N16W southwestward to the
1007 mb low associated with Invest AL94 to 08N32W. The ITCZ
continues westward from 08N32W to 07N39W. It resumes W of a
tropical wave near 06N44W to 08N56W. For information on convection
see the Tropical Waves Section.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
Fresh to strong N to NW winds are over the eastern Gulf waters E
of 89W along with seas rough seas of 8 to 11 ft in N to NE swell.
West of 89W, a surface ridge building in the wake of now Post-
Tropical Cyclone Milton supports gentle to moderate northerly
winds and moderate to rough seas to 9 ft.
For the forecast, strong winds and rough to very rough seas over
the eastern Gulf will diminish through Fri tonight. Gentle to
moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist Sat
through the early part of next week. Looking ahead, a cold front
will move into the northern Gulf Tue night, followed by fresh to
strong N to NE winds and building seas.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The tail of a cold front connected to now Post-Tropical Cyclone
Milton extends across western Cuba into the NW Caribbean with
moderate W to NW winds behind it. Seas W of the front are 5 to 9
ft, highest in the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh E to SE
winds are over the Caribbean east of 70W, along with seas of 4 to
6 ft. Mainly gentle winds and seas of 3 ft or less prevail across
the remainder of the Caribbean.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will persist over the
eastern Caribbean through early next week, with mostly gentle
breezes and slight seas elsewhere.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please read the Special Features section for information about
Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton and Tropical Storm Leslie. Also
refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
convection in the Atlantic basin.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton is near 29.5N 76.3W at 5 PM EDT,
and is moving east at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt
with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 983 mb.
A 1003 mb low pressure system, Invest AL93, is located near
31N59W is producing fresh to strong southwest winds, with 8 to
14 ft seas N of 25N between 51W and 66W. Other than those
features mentioned in the Special Features section, mainly gentle
to moderate winds remain across the remainder of the open waters,
except for fresh to strong winds over the far eastern Atlantic
between the coast of W Africa and the wave E of Cape Verde.
For the forecast W of 55W, Milton will become extratropical and
move to 29.6N 72.8W Fri morning, 29.8N 67.4W Fri afternoon, 30.4N
62.3W Sat morning, 31.0N 58.5W Sat afternoon, 32.1N 54.6W Sun
morning, then continue north of the area before dissipating by Mon
afternoon. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough to very rough seas
southeast of Bermuda will briefly diminish through tonight as the
trough associated with it lifts northeast of the area. Winds will
increase again Fri as the remnant low of Milton moves eastward.
Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the region
early next week as high pressure builds over the area.
$$
Ramos
