000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082115
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Dec 8 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2017 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move across
the Gulf of Mexico Friday. Therefore, a gap wind event will
develop along the Tehuantepec beginning Sun morning. Yet, winds
may increase to storm level by Sun night and a Storm Warning may
be required. Seas will quickly build to 20 ft by Sun night. Gale
wind with seas 8 to 12 ft may continue through mid week.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast and the Offshore Waters
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on the special
feature.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N87W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N87W to beyond 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 105W and 124W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for the
upcoming Gale Warning over Tehuantepec beginning Sun morning.
Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Fresh NW to N winds
prevail N of 27N while gentle to moderate winds are noted S of
27N. NW swell is inducing 8 to 12 ft seas N of the Revillagigedo
Islands, while near the islands seas are 8 to 9 ft. Light winds
and seas of 1 to 3 ft are ongoing in the Gulf of California, with
light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in mixed swell for
the remainder of offshore waters. Moderate winds are still active
over the Tehuantepec area, with seas to 7 ft.
For the forecast, long-period NW swell will persist off Baja
California and the Revillagigedo Islands through the weekend.
Strong winds will develop across most of the Gulf of California
this weekend, producing rough seas. A strong cold front will move
across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Therefore, a gale- force
winds event is expected to begin over the Gulf of Tehuantepec on
Sun and continue into mid week along with very rough seas.
Storm- force winds may develop Sun night in this area.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh NE to E winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo, with
seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere over
the region. Seas around 5 ft in the Guatemala and El Salvador
offshore waters mostly within mixed swell. Offshore Ecuador
waters, seas range between 5 to 7 ft primarily in a S swell.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to
pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo each night through the
forecast period. Gentle to moderate breezes will pulse across the
Gulf of Panama region through Sat night.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure dominates the waters N of 15N. Fresh to strong
trade winds persist south of the ridge, mainly 10N to 25N W of
122W. Seas in this region are 10 to 13 ft, in a mix of seas due
to the trade wind flow and long-period NW swell. Gentle to
moderate winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the area
through early next week. Large, long-period NW swell will
continue to move across the all the forecast waters. Seas to 13
ft are expected from 07.5N to 19.5N and W of 124W through the
weekend, while seas of 7 to 11 ft will prevail elsewhere. This
swell will gradually decay this weekend. Looking ahead, the next
NW 12 ft seas swell event may beginning by the end of next week.
$$
Konarik
