000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221514
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Oct 22 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Kristy is centered near 14.7N 106.6W at 22/1500
UTC, moving west at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60
kt. Seas are peaking near 16 ft. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 105W and 108W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere from 12N to
18N between 104W and 110W. A well- established subtropical ridge
is expected to steer the tropical cyclone westward over the next
few days. The environment is favorable for intensification, with
the current forecast calling for Kristy to reach category 3
intensity by the end of the week. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Kristy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 10N98W. It resumes W
of Tropical Storm Kristy near 11N111W to 10N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 95W and 110W, and
from 10N to 168N between 131W and 139W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on information on
Tropical Storm Kristy.
Aside from Kristy, fresh to strong NNE winds are ongoing across
the Tehuantepec region, where seas are in the 7-9 ft range. A
weak ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough
over Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate winds west of the
Baja California peninsula and extending southward to the
Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6
ft, are in the southern half of the Gulf of California. Gentle to
moderate winds are over the northern Gulf, with seas in the 2-4
ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, are over
the remainder of the discussion waters.
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Kristy will move to 14.6N
109.4W this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.4N 112.6W
Wed morning, 14.3N 116.2W Wed evening, 14.2N 119.4W Thu morning,
14.3N 122.5W Thu evening, and 15.0N 125.2W Fri morning. Kristy
will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.0N 129.5W early
Sat. Fresh to strong N gap winds in the Tehuantepec region will
increase to strong to near- gale force tonight, and continue
through the weekend with brief gales possible Wed night and Sat
through Sun. Fresh NW to N winds are expected over central and
southern portions of the Gulf of California through early Wed.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle winds prevail N of the monsoon trough, with
gentle to moderate winds S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the
5-6 ft range.
For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds are expected in the
Gulf of Papagayo Wed through Sun night, pulsing to fresh speeds
at night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will
prevail south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle winds
will prevail north of the monsoon trough. Mainly moderate seas in
cross equatorial SW swell are expected, with the highest seas
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for further information on
Tropical Storm Kristy.
Aside from Kristy, high pressure dominates the forecast waters N
of 20N and W of 115W. The pressure gradient between this area of
high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is
supporting gentle to moderate trade winds N of the monsoon
trough to 20N and W of 110W, with mainly moderate seas. Light to
gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail N of 20N. Gentle to
moderate winds, and moderate seas, are found S of the monsoon
trough.
For the forecast, a cold front will reach the NW corner of the
forecast region tonight into Wed. A new swell event is forecast
to follow the front. Tropical Storm Kristy will move to 14.6N
109.4W this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.4N 112.6W
Wed morning, 14.3N 116.2W Wed evening, 14.2N 119.4W Thu morning,
14.3N 122.5W Thu evening, and 15.0N 125.2W Fri morning. Kristy
will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.0N 129.5W early
Sat.
$$
AL
