000<br />AXPZ20 KNHC 162218<br />TWDEP <br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />2205 UTC Sun Mar 16 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from<br />03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and<br />from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following<br />information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,<br />radar, and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through<br />2130 UTC.<br /><br />...SPECIAL FEATURES...<br /><br />Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong N gap winds will <br />develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening before winds <br />quickly strengthen to gale force, as a cold front moves through <br />the Gulf of America and high pressure builds in the region. <br />Strong gales will be possible late tonight through Mon morning, <br />and very rough seas peaking near 16 to 19 ft will occur in tandem<br />with these winds. Winds will diminish below gale force early <br />Tue, with fresh to strong winds continuing through late morning. <br />Seas will slowly subside by Tue night. <br /> <br />Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National <br />Hurricane Center at website - <br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.<br /><br />...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...<br /><br />The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 02N100W. The ITCZ <br />continues from 02N100W to beyond 02S140W. No significant <br />convection is occurring across the basin.<br /><br />...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...<br /><br />See Special Features section above for information on a Gale <br />Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.<br /><br />A trough has been analyzed over northwestern Mexico. Recent <br />scatterometer satellite data shows moderate to fresh NW winds <br />occurring across the central and southern Gulf of California, <br />with locally strong winds noted offshore of Loreto. Otherwise, a<br />1025 mb high centered near 29N124W extends ridging through the <br />remainder of the Mexico offshore waters, with moderate N to NE <br />winds extending through the Baja California offshore waters. A <br />long period NW swell extends rough seas of 8 to 10 ft through the<br />waters offshore of Baja California southward to offshore of <br />southwestern Mexico north of 15N. Farther south, gentle to <br />locally moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail offshore of <br />southern Mexico.<br /><br />For the forecast, rough seas in NW swell offshore of Baja <br />California and southwestern Mexico will slowly subside tonight. <br />Fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected into early Mon <br />through the Gulf of California. A cold front moving southward <br />along the California coast is slated to enter the northern waters<br />on Mon, leading to fresh to locally strong NW winds and rough <br />seas offshore of Baja California Mon evening into Wed. Strong to<br />near-gale force winds will be possible across the northern Gulf <br />late Mon night in the wake of the front, with fresh to strong NW <br />winds expanding southward and impacting the region Tue through <br />Thu. Very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft are expected north of Punta <br />Eugenia Tue into early Wed. Looking ahead, gale force winds are <br />slated to redevelop late week in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. <br /><br />...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, <br />AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...<br /><br />Weak ridging over the waters offshore of Central and South<br />America is leading to gentle to locally moderate winds and seas<br />of 3 to 5 ft in the region. <br /><br />For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected <br />to develop in the Gulf of Papagayo early Mon, with pulsing fresh <br />to strong winds continuing through late week. Locally rough seas <br />in E swell will accompany these winds. Pulsing fresh to strong N <br />to NE winds are also anticipated in the Gulf of Panama Mon <br />through the rest of the week. Rough seas generated by strong gale<br />force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will move into the waters<br />well offshore of Guatemala Mon through Tue, and again by late <br />week. <br /><br />...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....<br /><br />A 1025 mb high centered near 29N124W extends ridging through <br />much of the eastern Pacific waters, and moderate to locally fresh<br />NE to E winds are noted from 05N to 20N along the periphery of <br />high pressure. A cold front is moving into the northwestern <br />waters, extending from 30N137W to 28N140W, and moderate to fresh <br />N to NW winds and rough seas are noted north of the front. <br />Elsewhere, rough seas of 8 to 10 ft extend through most of the <br />waters north of the ITCZ. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate <br />winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted south of 10N and east of <br />110W. <br /><br />For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move <br />through the northwestern waters through Mon, leading to moderate<br />to fresh NE winds in the wake of the front north of 25N into Tue.<br />A tightening pressure gradient between this front and ridging <br />over the eastern Pacific will support widespread fresh NE to E <br />winds from 05N to 25N, generally west of 115W Mon through at <br />least the middle of the week. Rough seas in NW swell will <br />continue across much of the open waters through early this week. <br />Rough seas generated in the wake of the aforementioned cold front<br />will propagate southeastward this afternoon through midweek, and<br />peak seas of 12 to 14 ft are likely north of 26N between 120W <br />and 140W late tonight through Tue. Elsewhere, rough seas <br />generated by gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will <br />extend as far south as 05N and to 110W Mon through midweek. <br /><br />$$<br />ADAMS